During the night session, SHFE tin prices fluctuated and pulled back, with high prices continuing to suppress spot cargo transactions. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on October 28, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) pulled back after fluctuating at highs during the night session, closing at 285,350 yuan/mt, up 0.15% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Qualcomm (QCOM.O) on Monday launched two AI chips for data centers and is expected to begin commercial supply next year. This marks a significant step for the company in diversifying its business beyond the smartphone market and expanding into the rapidly growing AI infrastructure sector. Driven by the news, Qualcomm's stock price surged 20% that day. The two new chips, named AI200 and AI250, are designed to enhance memory capacity and optimize performance for AI applications, with planned launches in 2026 and 2027, respectively. As cloud service providers, chipmakers, and enterprises race to build infrastructure capable of supporting complex large language models, chatbots, and other generative AI tools, global investment in AI chips has increased substantially. However, the current AI boom is still primarily supported by Nvidia's (NVDA.O) chips. (2) Rockchip released its Q3 2025 report, with Q3 revenue reaching 1.096 billion yuan, up 20.26% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm at 248 million yuan, up 47.06% YoY. For the first three quarters, revenue totaled 3.141 billion yuan, up 45.46% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 780 million yuan, up 121.65% YoY. In the first three quarters of 2025, AIoT market demand continued to rise. The company's flagship chip, RK3588, boosted the penetration of various AIoT computing platforms in automotive electronics, machine vision, industrial applications, and the robotics market, driving revenue growth and boosting profits at a faster pace. (3) In the first three quarters, the communications industry operated steadily overall. Telecom service revenue grew steadily, with continued progress in the construction of 5G, gigabit, and IoT network infrastructure, steady expansion of connected users, and rapid growth in mobile internet traffic. By the end of September, the total number of 5G base stations reached 4.705 million, a net increase of 455,000 from year-end, accounting for 36.6% of all mobile base stations, up 0.9 percentage points from H1.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening overall in major producing regions such as Yunnan. Maintenance shutdowns at some smelters in October have largely ended, and most smelters in Yunnan are operating relatively steadily. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream purchasing remains cautious, and high prices are noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although AI computing power upgrades and growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sector consumption.

Spot Market: Trading activity in the spot market remained sluggish, maintaining the characteristic of just-in-time procurement. Yesterday afternoon, due to the expiration of end-of-period options in the SHFE tin market, tin prices surged rapidly. Although they gradually pulled back during the night session, the price surge still dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm.

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